In the previous federal election, discussions in Quebec shifted from defending the province’s interests to safeguarding Canada against the backdrop of Donald Trump’s tariff threats and statements hinting at incorporating Canada as the 51st state. Mark Carney’s Liberal party capitalized on this sentiment during the election, achieving its best outcome in Quebec in decades and overshadowing the Bloc Québécois.
The noise emanating from Washington drowned out debates on Quebec identity, secularism, and language at the time. As the provincial election commences, there is speculation on whether the U.S. president could once again play a significant role in shaping the narrative.
The focus leading up to the campaign launch was dominated by the impact of newly imposed tariffs, compelling all party leaders to demonstrate their ability to shield the province from the economic repercussions. The economy’s management during uncertain times appears to be a crucial factor influencing voter decisions, according to Philippe Fournier, a polling analyst and founder of Qc125.
Before the trade war escalation, polls indicated that health care, housing, and cost of living were primary concerns for voters. The Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) faced challenges due to two terms in power and a dissatisfied electorate. Economic stability becoming a priority for voters could benefit the CAQ the most, as per André Lecours, a political science professor at the University of Ottawa.
Quebec, heavily reliant on automotive, metals, and manufacturing exports, is projected to suffer significantly from the new tariffs. The campaign has witnessed a shift from evaluating the government’s past performance to choosing the most capable leader to navigate the crisis.
Paul St-Pierre Plamondon of the Parti Québécois (PQ) assured voters that a referendum would not be pursued until the end of Trump’s second term, emphasizing the election’s focus on Quebec’s future. Recent polls indicate a tightening race, with the ruling CAQ catching up to the PQ and Liberals after trailing for months.
The CAQ leader Christine Fréchette, benefitting from being in power during the turmoil, has unveiled financial aid programs targeting sectors most affected by the tariffs. The party aims to replicate Mark Carney’s successful leadership transition, although the comparison may not hold due to differing circumstances.
Fréchette’s opponents are challenging her suitability to handle the current situation, with criticisms of her disconnect from federal negotiation tactics and failure to protect Quebec’s interests. The Quebec Solidaire is proposing a substantial annual provision to support affected workers and businesses, while the Conservatives are promising spending cuts and tax relief.
The leader who can reassure the electorate by portraying stability amidst the uncertainties brought by Trump and the tariffs may gain an advantage in the election, according to Fournier. However, the race remains open as the electorate’s preference is yet to be determined.