The El Niño weather phenomenon is expected to lead to a significant increase in ocean temperatures in the Pacific, potentially causing widespread impacts such as floods and droughts, as per UN officials’ warning on Wednesday.
The latest seasonal outlook from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) anticipates an exceptionally strong El Niño event, projecting a rise of approximately 3.8 degrees Celsius above normal in the central Pacific between November and January, reaching its peak around December.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo noted that this projected temperature increase surpasses historical records, with previous El Niños seeing temperatures around 3 degrees Celsius above normal, resulting in significant global impacts.
El Niño represents the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycle, a natural climate pattern that influences weather patterns globally, leading to elevated temperatures and disrupted rainfall patterns across various regions, causing droughts in some areas and heavy rainfall in others.
While El Niño is a naturally occurring phenomenon and not directly caused by climate change, the intensification of El Niños can be exacerbated by global warming due to the already elevated baseline temperatures.
The WMO highlighted potential consequences of El Niño-related extreme weather events, including increased pressure on housing, water resources, sanitation, and health services. Southern Africa is expected to face heightened flood risks starting in November, while Southeast Asia may experience adverse impacts on agriculture and water supply due to warmer conditions and reduced rainfall. Conversely, Latin America could witness increased rainfall during this period.
UN under-secretary-general for humanitarian affairs and emergency relief coordinator, Tom Fletcher, emphasized the urgent need for preparedness in the face of the impending El Niño impacts, characterizing it as a significant threat with the potential to unleash extreme heat, droughts, and floods across Latin America, Eastern and Southern Africa, Asia, and the Pacific, leading to significant humanitarian challenges.
Fletcher warned that around 50 million people could be at risk of heightened food insecurity due to the upcoming El Niño event.
For a deeper understanding of this year’s El Niño and its potential implications, consider watching the video “What exactly is a ‘super’ El Niño? And what does it mean for you?” to gain insights into the forecasted weather patterns and impacts associated with this phenomenon.