Last week, residents of Moscow witnessed a significant drone attack by Ukraine on the Russian capital, marking the largest assault since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022. The city was enveloped in black smoke as Ukrainian drones flew overhead, resulting in numerous flight disruptions and cancellations. The attack targeted a major oil refinery on the outskirts of Moscow, causing repeated strikes and setting the facility ablaze.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned, “If Ukraine burns, Moscow will burn too,” intensifying the proximity of the war for many Russians and disrupting their daily routines, leading to heightened concerns about safety. Analysts suggest that these attacks could exacerbate internal tensions as the conflict persists, raising uncertainties about the impact on Russian President Vladimir Putin’s grip on power and the potential for further escalation.
Historian Anne Applebaum highlighted that Muscovites experienced significant drone campaigns for the first time during the ongoing war, indicating a shift in perception towards the conflict. While these strikes may not promptly resolve the conflict, they have the potential to influence the mood of influential figures such as the business and political elite, impacting Putin’s decision-making.
Despite the visible impact of the attacks on the city, footage of the strikes was not broadcast on evening newscasts in Russia, and no alerts were issued to residents. This lack of communication left citizens feeling anxious and unprotected, as expressed by a Moscow resident who emphasized the absence of sirens or warnings during the attacks.
In addition to Moscow, other Russian cities have also faced Ukrainian strikes, including an electronics plant in Voronezh and power outages in Crimea, affecting energy infrastructure in central and southern Russia. The ongoing attacks have instilled fear and uncertainty among affected communities, with residents expressing concerns about their safety and the lack of protection from authorities.
As public support for the war declines in Russia, some prominent Kremlin allies have criticized Putin’s handling of the conflict. However, Ukrainian journalist Eugene Slavnyi emphasized that opposition to Putin does not necessarily equate to a shift in attitudes towards the war itself, underscoring the complex dynamics of the conflict between Russian and Ukrainian people.
Exiled activist Mikhail Khodorkovsky highlighted the potential implications of diminishing support for the war on Putin’s political standing, suggesting that the authoritarian leader relies heavily on societal backing. While there are concerns about possible protests and dissent, Putin’s response could involve crackdowns on dissidents and heightened aggression to maintain control.
The mounting challenges of managing internal discontent and a prolonged war pose significant hurdles for Putin, with potential risks of escalating violence and further aggression towards Ukraine. As pressure mounts, Putin’s responses remain unpredictable, raising concerns about his intentions and future actions in the conflict.
Putin is currently wanted by the International Criminal Court for alleged war crimes related to the trafficking of Ukrainian children into Russia. Despite the mounting pressures and setbacks, Putin’s response to the evolving situation remains uncertain, with possibilities of increased aggression to assert dominance amid the ongoing conflict.