Russia’s oil exports through the Northern Sea Route (NSR) in 2026 have surged by almost 50% compared to last year, with approximately 20 million barrels shipped to Asia between July and mid-October, according to traders and data. The NSR connects Russia’s western ports to Asian markets through icy Arctic waters, offering an alternative route that gained favor this year due to disruptions in other key shipping lanes like the Suez Canal and the Black Sea.
Rising tanker freight rates, driven by geopolitical tensions and inflation, have pushed Asian refiners to seek oil from alternative sources like the Middle East and Latin America, as U.S. crude became less accessible. Despite the traditionally high tariffs for using the NSR, which requires icebreaker assistance, it has become a more cost-effective option compared to the usual route through the Red Sea to Asia.
For Russia, which oversees the NSR, this route provides a secure alternative to European waters where incidents of tanker arrests have been reported. Traders estimate that the volume of Russian oil exported via the Arctic route is set to increase by another 5 to 10 million barrels by the end of the navigation season.
Gazprom Neft, a major Russian oil company, plans to elevate its NSR shipments by approximately 35% this year compared to 2025. Additionally, Russia is expected to boost its supply of liquid natural gas (LNG) to Asia through the NSR, with an increase anticipated following the commencement of Arctic LNG shipments.
During an economic forum in Vladivostok, President Vladimir Putin expressed expectations for cargo turnover via the NSR to double to 70 million tonnes annually by the end of the decade. The recent launch of Rosneft’s Vostok Oil project in northern Russia has already contributed to the escalating volumes utilizing the NSR.